LME nickel cash settlement fell to 16,621 USD per tonne on June 29, 2026, down 1.09% from the previous trading day and roughly 13.5% below the levels seen in early June, according to Trading Economics and LME cash market data.
For buyers of stainless steel wire mesh, the recent decline looks like a buying opportunity. But a closer look at the supply side suggests the relief may be temporary.
Current Price Snapshot (June 29, 2026)
| Indicator | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| LME Nickel Cash | 16,621 USD/t | Trading Economics, June 29 |
| vs. 1 Month Ago | -13.54% | Trading Economics |
| vs. 1 Year Ago | +9.90% | Trading Economics |
| LME Nickel Cash (June 19) | 17,590 USD/t | Tacto Intelligence |
| LME Warehouse Stocks | ~276,000 tonnes | LME |
The June drop largely unwound the April rally, driven by weak European stainless steel demand and a temporary easing of geopolitical risk premiums in the Gulf region.
The Supply Side Is Tightening — Fast
Beneath the surface price decline, structural supply constraints are intensifying:
1. Indonesia Slashes Mining Quota Indonesia cut its 2026 RKAB (mining quota) to 270 million wet metric tonnes, down from 375 million in 2025. The quota is now below expected demand of 345 million wmt, according to Tacto Intelligence.
2. Eramet Halts Weda Bay Production In early June, Eramet suspended production at the PT Weda Bay Nickel facility after exhausting its 2026 quota of 12 million wmt (down from 42 million in 2025). Weda Bay had supplied roughly one-third of the ore processed at the Weda Bay Industrial Park. Eramet is negotiating a quota increase with the Indonesian Ministry of Energy; the standard RKAB revision is expected by end of July 2026.
3. First Global Deficit Since 2021 The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) projects a 32,000-tonne global deficit for 2026 — the first since 2021.
4. LME Stocks Are High — But Misleading LME inventories remain elevated at ~276,000 tonnes. However, much of this stock is tied to financing deals and may not be freely available for physical offtake.
How Nickel Price Moves Filter Mesh Cost
Nickel accounts for approximately 60% of the raw material cost in 304 and 316 stainless steel. The price transmission works as follows:
- LME nickel price → mill alloy surcharge (typically 1-2 month lag)
- Alloy surcharge → stainless steel coil price
- Coil price → woven wire mesh price (additional 2-4 week lag)
Current mesh pricing (June 2026, FOB China):
- 304 woven mesh: $8–15 per sqm
- 316 woven mesh: $12–22 per sqm
- 316L welded mesh: $10–15 per sqm
Because of the lag effect, the June nickel decline has not yet fully flowed through to mesh pricing. Mill surcharges for July and August deliveries were largely set in May and early June, when nickel was still trading above $19,000/t.
What Happens in Q3 2026?
The RKAB revision deadline at end-July is the critical near-term trigger.
Base Case (65–70% probability):
- Indonesia grants moderate quota increases
- LME nickel trades in the $17,000–$18,500/t band
- Mesh prices remain stable through Q3
Risk Case (25–30% probability):
- RKAB revision comes in tighter than expected
- Additional mines move to care-and-maintenance
- LME nickel rallies to $18,500–$20,500/t
- Mesh prices rise 8–12% in September–October
Bull Case (5–10% probability):
- Chinese stainless mills aggressively restock
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions return
- Nickel tests $22,000+ — last seen in 2022
Procurement Recommendations for Q3 2026
1. Lock in pricing for Q4 orders now If your project requires delivery in October–December, negotiate fixed prices in July. The current nickel decline gives you temporary leverage against mills that are still carrying high-May alloy costs.
2. Split your order: 60% fixed, 40% floating For large orders (1,000+ sqm), hedge against both scenarios. Lock 60% at today’s rates. Leave 40% open to benefit if nickel drops further in August.
3. Specify alloy surcharge transparency Insist that your supplier breaks out the base material cost from processing charges. This lets you negotiate the nickel-linked component separately.
4. Consider 316L for long-life applications With supply uncertainty ahead, the 20–30% premium for 316L over 304 is insurance against price volatility. If you have to replace 304 mesh in 18 months due to corrosion, you will pay today’s price again — potentially at higher levels.
5. Sample now, decide later Most Chinese factories offer free A4-size samples shipped by DHL in 3–5 days. Test pore accuracy and material grade before committing to a bulk order. If you wait until August to sample, you may face longer lead times as factories prioritize confirmed orders.
Data Sources
- Trading Economics: Nickel CFD, June 29, 2026
- Tacto Intelligence: Nickel Procurement Brief, June 19, 2026
- London Metal Exchange (LME): Cash settlement and warehouse stock data
- International Nickel Study Group (INSG): 2026 Supply-Demand Forecast
- PricePedia: LME Nickel Forecast Scenario, February 2026
This analysis is based on publicly available market data as of June 29, 2026. For customized quotes or technical consultation on stainless steel mesh specifications, contact our engineering team.
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